Based on the CHONE projections of fangraphs this is what the Dodgers record will be according to runs scored and runs allowed. If they manage to keep Manny Ramirez, they will be about 94-68. With Juan Pierre, 85-77, and if they sign Adam Dunn, 91-71. I figured Dunn isn't likely, but is probably the likeliest of the unlikely players.
With the bullpen and the bench still being sorted out, I used similar stats from the 2008 season, figuring the bench projection might be down a little and the bullpen might give up a few more.
Rafael Furcal .284, 94 R, 11 HR, 51 RBI
Russel Martin .286, 84 R, 14 HR, 74 RBI
Manny Ramirez .290, 87 R, 32 HR, 101 RBI
Andre Ethier .292, 75 R, 16 HR, 69 RBI
Matt Kemp .299, 84 R, 16 HR, 74 RBI
James Loney .294, 70 R, 13 HR, 80 RBI
Casey Blake .259, 60 R, 20 HR, 66 RBI
Blake DeWitt .252, 54 R, 10 HR, 54 RBI
I personally feel like Ramirez, Kemp, Loney and Ethier will have better years than projected. These projections have them digressing and I don't think that will happen. They will probably score 800 runs (give or take).
With Dunn in the outfield instead, he would likely account for about 25 less runs. Pierre would account for about 65 less runs than Dunn and nearly 90 less than Ramirez.
Pitching: I am going with Randy Wolf as the fifth starter because he, Jon Garland or James McDonald (everyone out there is pretty similar) will probably have fairly similar stats. I threw Claudio Vargas' stats because he will more than likely make some starts.
Chad Billingsley 10-8, 71 R, 3.69 ERA
Clayton Kershaw 6-6, 54 R, 4.23 ERA
Hiroki Kuroda 9-8, 76 R, 3.99 ERA
Jason Schmidt 4-4, 38 R, 4.57 ERA
Randy Wolf 6-7, 69 R, 4.72 ERA
Claudio Vargas 5-6, 61 R, 4.75 ERA
This staff doesn't chew up a lot of innings, so I am projecting the bullpen has to pitch quite a bit and gives up more runs than last year. All told, the staff should give up about 670 runs (give or take).
As you can see, the pitching isn't going to be as good, so some offense is needed. Ramirez, or an upgrade over Pierre, is very much needed. Dunn equals about three less wins, and that might not make the difference in the National League West, but Manny has a track record of being a difference maker in the playoffs.
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