If you look at the National League race right now, it doesn't look great. There's a lot of time left, and I don't think the Dodgers are out of it, but what does being six games back and trailing two teams with a week to go in July mean?
What it means is that the Dodgers should still consider upgrading in some areas, but not at the expense of the future. I wouldn't give up a bunch of prospects for someone who isn't under team control through at least next season.
Let's start with the bullpen. With the addition of Kenley Jansen, I'm pretty much okay with the relievers. With Travis Schlichting, Jansen, Hong-Chi Kuo and Jonathan Broxton, things look pretty solid. Jeff Weaver is still pretty good as a long man. If Ramon Troncoso could somehow get straightened out at Triple-A, the club would be all set.
A name that keeps getting mentioned is Kyle Farnsworth. I like him, but I wouldn't give up much at all for him. With the team floating six games back, I'm not too comfortable giving up too much of the future for rentals.
Farnsworth's contract expires after this year, because I'm sure the Dodgers wouldn't pick up his $5.25 mil option for 2011. Same goes for Kevin Gregg, who's 2011 option is pricey.
If there is an upgrade to be made in the field, I would say a guy like Cody Ross makes perfect sense. He can play all three outfield positions, would be a pretty good replacement for when Manny is hurt and would be a factor next year. Ross is arbitration eligible, and will probably earn around $5.5-$6 mil, and he would also allow the Dodgers to use Xavier Paul as tradebait while keeping the seat warm for a guy like Jerry Sands, Kyle Russell, Trayvon Robinson or Andrew Lambo in 2012.
If the Dodgers do trade Russell Martin, and there have been a few whispers, I'm okay with rolling with Lucas May and A.J. Ellis, though some people might want a proven veteran.
On a side note, I really would have loved if the Dodgers traded for Alberto Callaspo and had I known the Royals were going to just give him away, I would have been pushing for the Dodgers to ship off two guys who won't make a difference to get him.
The pitching staff is where the team is being most active, at least rumored to be being active, and if they do somehow magically make the cash appear to swing a deal for a pretty good starter, I really hope it's a guy who factors in next year. Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt would both be under contract through 2012. Paul Maholm is under team control through 2011, but I really want nothing to do with him.
Ted Lilly is a guy I'd like to avoid because he's not a huge difference maker and would only make a handful of starts. I'm happy Ben Sheets got hurt because that wouldn't have been a smart move.
Lets start with the bullpen, we are not set, we have a good start with Jensen, Kuo and Brox, and Schlits aint bad, but last year we had Sherrill, Kuo, Bellesario, Troncoso, and Broxton all peaking and throwing well, we are good, but need a Farnsworth, or Aardsma, Gregg, Frasior, Downs to make ourselves back up to the elite.
Im down for Cody Ross but not at an overpay, Elbert and Paul could do, but not much else. It would be good to see Ross back in blue as he was peaking when we let him go. But he would man LF next year, and give Sands a little more seasoning at the AA or AAA level. Manny cannot be counted on to stay healthy.
AJ Ellis and Ausmus would man the fort this year making way for May and Ellis next year. Martin is playing good defense again making Boston really want him more, could a Martin and Ellsbury swap happen? Im not saying straight up but we could use Ellsbury atop the lineup manning LF or CF for the next couple of years.
At least Colleti makes it seem like he is trying for Oswalt and Harden, but I dont think we will end up with him, Houston needs prospects at all levels. Their farm is worst in the league last I checked. I still agree with Max Johnson, Malholm or something like him.
In the pennant race league the Dodgers are one of 6 teams withtin 6 1/2 games of the top. They are starting a series with San Diego who are in 1st place, 1/2 ahead of LA.
Would you be willing to give up the wild card safety net if it meant having season long pennant races? Would it change the equation on trades at this point? (Actually I think I'd make an earlier trade deadline and enforce the waiver rule more strictly.)
"Would you be willing to give up the wild card safety net if it meant having season long pennant races? Would it change the equation on trades at this point?"
Not sure what you mean, but I want to win the World Series, not get invited to a party that ends early. Not playing just to play in October, thats for teams that suck.
Well, if you win the pennnant race without wild cards, you have one less hurdle to make it to the World Series. You've just eliminated the "teams that suck".
I'm also proposing "Tiers" to determine next years schedule. 4 Divisons, only top 4 teams make it to the play-offs. In each league, top finishers in East play only the top finishers in West next year. Same with the bottom finishers.
Your proposing that we go back to the format before the wild card but with four divisions...I didnt like the wild card format at the beggining because it was different, but since the Angels emerged as Wild Card champions to snatch the WS title from SF I'm a big fan, weve seen the Marlins, Angels, RedSox, Rays, Rockies all advance to the WS through the Wild Card.
The importance for a wild card is to prevent a second place division team that might be the best in the league from not getting a chance to prove it in the playoffs, makes it more exciting to me.
Actual what I'm proposing is a formula that returns baseball to a game that produced such great pennant races, that 4 post-season play-offs were necessary betwen 1947-1962.
There would be two divisions per league and teams would play a majority of their games (126) against rivals for the same pennant. The other 36 games would be played against teams from their leagues other division, depending on whether they finish in the 1st or 2nd Tier.
What MLB has done by introducing 2 extra play-off teams per league and an extra week of post season, is to throw its very unique, very natural 6 month long season out of wack.
By adding "wild cards" to the mix, instead of giving 6 months of baseball its due, from the first day of the season your focusing on the chance for an additional one month of baseball.
Your point about making sure a second place team is not the best team proves my point. How can you take a team that has finished 2nd to a 1st place team over 162 games and consider it the better team because it has won two league short series? Sounds like the tail wagging the dog and cheapens the whole 162 game process. ( I'm convinced MLB has been having problems with post-season viewership because of this.)
I've been studying Pennant Races and Tier Chases vs. Wild Card Baseball since the Wild Card was introduced and can say with some certainty that as a product, and as a game, the former beats the later in every category (For the whole season; for September; for October; for attendance; for media packages; for fans of individual teams satisfaction; and fans of baseball as a whole.
If you like, you can get a feel for the pennant race season by visiting my website.
"the former beats the later in every category (For the whole season; for September; for October; for attendance; for media packages; for fans of individual teams satisfaction; and fans of baseball as a whole."
Not sure thats true, attendance is up, playoffs sell out and there are more games, unless your saying attendance is down in regular season as a result. Fans of individual teams satisfaction...more teams get to go to playoffs meaning more fans get to think their team has a chance. Media Packages you might be right there, but fans as a whole? Havent heard many complaints about the format, more people want to get rid of the DH before changing formats again.
There's alot here so let me take your points one by one.
Attendance may be up and I would not dispute it,but I've looked at wild card game attendance and all I say is that you'll do better with Pennant Races and Tier Chases. Here's why.
Pennant Races are a better product than wild card year round because it is more competitive, features better quality teams, and is definitely more intense for the teams and fans involved.
Pennant Races are better in September because they build to a climax throughout the month. The way things are set-up now, the regular season fizzles as the better teams prepare for post-season rather than compete. The worst teams in the division are playing significant games in September when they can play the role of spoiler.
Finally, the Tier system acts as a spur for attendance throughout the season and in September because a team is playing for a better schedule next season if they finish in the 1st Tier.
The Tier system is also a major reason why I say fans of individual teams will have greater satisfaction. For most fans the sense that they are in contention for a playoff berth is an illusion. When I look at "games behind" in the pennant race league, those same teams can be said to be in contention for the division pennants.
The fact is that the current system creates only 2 extra playoff teams per league. With the havoc it plays on baseball's traditional and natural characteristics, it's just not worth it. By creating a system that only focuses on individual team playoff contention, by the end of the season you end up with 8 team fans who are satisfied; and 22 dissatisfied ones.
With Tiers, beside the 4 pennant winners there are an additional 11 actual slots that lead to a better season. Play well and you end up with a better schedule next year.
Even if you don't win you may be a fan of a team that's been in contention all season; and if your team is not in contention, you can stil enjoy season long races. This all leads to increased individual fan satisfaction.
When you talk about the post-season you must immediately turn your attention away from attendance and talk about media ratings. These have been abysmal; which is indicated by the fact that much of the post-season has switched to cable and the World Series has lost weekend coverage.
I'd say that this is a direct result of the current wild card and three tier playoff system that Pennant Races and Tier Chases would eliminate. Again we have to look at the individual team emphasis of wild card. By the time the post-season rolls around you have only eight team fans who are enthusiastic about the games. As the playoffs wear on, you LOSE viewer. You also have to wait too long to get to sport's best post-season event, the World Series. The current system buries it under too many mediocre post-season games.
And what is all this talk about post-season records? Do you mean to tell me that a HR in the Division Series is as important as one hit inthe World Series?
With Pennant Races, when the regular season ends you're ready to see the teams and players you've been watching
all year round compete in the best baseball contests there are. Interest should pick up throughout the season and ratings will soar. New fans will be created for seasons to come.
Finally the question of what fans want. Wild card is a baseball fan's only choice and it's markerted like any other product."It's Better! It's the Best!!". Compared to what? Do you remember ever being able to have a discussion on the subject?
And believe me I've tried. I use to call WFAN in New York and the attitude is, if you don't like the wild card you're crazy. Beside Bob Costas have you ever heard any baseball or sports personality speak against the wild card?
You can't tell me what the fans would want if they had a chance to choose. I have an expression:"It's like voting for Hussein." What did he use to win by 99%? I'd like to find the 1%!
Anyway, after studying this thing since the beginning, I'm convinced that Pennant Races and Tier Chases beat wild cards hands down. Now if I can only get those discussions started.
Thanks for giving me the opportunity to do it here.
"Beside Bob Costas have you ever heard any baseball or sports personality speak against the wild card?"
No, and I hate Costas, he would try to make an opera exciting by being the commentator
Ratings are also down due to the rise of the NFL and NBA, more innercity kids are turning to these two sports more than baseball. But I dont think its the wildcard doing it more than better marketing from the NFL and NBA. Steriods have biggest impact in decline in my opinion.
History would seem to refute your argument about the NFL and NBA being major cause of MLB's declining ratings in post-season, when the wild card was heralded as baseball's savior with regard to competition from the NFL in September and October. The evidence is that the wild card and Division Series has made things WORSE, not better.
(As an aside, why did baseball go back to FOX as their major broadcaster when they no longer wanted a big chunk of baseball's post-season? FOX was the original hawkers of the extra round of post-season games and now they want no part of it? Sounds like MLB's excutives have allowed themselves to be a part of some "evil" FOX plan to make them 2nd class citizens to the NFL, which is FOX's major sports product.
By accepting an inferior poduct and no day-time World Series baseball, they got more short-term money, but decreased their potential for long-term growth.)
No, as described above baseball's herky-jerky season actually loses viewers precisely because of the affect the wild card has on the game. Furthermore, why do any further damage to baseball's Jewel, the World Series, when people were already complaining that it was becoming anti-climactic with a 7 game Championshsip Series.( Possible Solution: go back to 9 game World Series)
Blaming anything other than the game itself for the declining popularity of the sport is nothing more than "excusitis". The competition with the other sports (and recovering from the "Steroid Era")is the very reason that baseball must put its best foot forward. Which is why it must replace its inferior Wild Card League with the much stronger Pennant Race and Tier Chase baseball.
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