Quick, name the returning starting pitchers the Dodgers will have in 2011…
It’s shouldn’t take you that long to figure it out because there are two: Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.
Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente are all entering free agency and Carlos Monasterios does not qualify as a starting pitcher in my mind. Ever.
So what should the Dodgers do with these guys? They need to offer arbitration to all three of them.
Most pundits are talking about how the Dodgers don’t have the financial flexibility to do that just in case they all accept, but the chances of that happening are less than zero.
If Ned Colletti doesn’t realize that, then he will only prove that he’s as dumb as I think he is.
The only one who will even consider accepting is Vicente Padilla, and if he does, fine. Because of an injury plagued 2010 season, he probably won’t make much more than he made this year ($5.05 mil) which is about as cheap as you’ll find a decent starting pitcher on the open market. Padilla also has something to prove after being injured for a good portion of this season, so bringing him back on a one-year deal would give him incentive. There is a chance he would decline because he no longer wants to work on a one-year deal, and that would bring the Dodgers a draft pick. If he declines, maybe work on bringing him back if the right deal presents itself.
Now, as for Kuroda and Lilly, it’s simple. In a weak market for starting pitching, these guys are two of the top available and like I said, there is literally no chance they accept arbitration and they would both bring back draft picks.
After they decline arbitration, work on re-signing one of them, and I think it should be Lilly. I say this because A) he’s a lefty and it would be nice to have more than just one, and: B) he would consider giving the Dodgers a slight discount because he wants to pitch for his hometown team, and clearly pitches well at Dodger Stadium.
I think Kuroda is going to try and cash in on what is probably his last chance at a big contract, and the Dodgers probably won’t even give it a serious try.
To recap: The Dodgers must offer arbitration to all three guys, they must re-sign at least one, and hopefully two of them.
The free agent market is thin on pitching, and there is literally nothing in the Minors that will be close to competing for a rotation spot next spring.
With quite a bit of cash coming off the books, the Dodgers (even as cheap as they are right now) can afford two of these guys.
Can they afford two of them and perhaps Cliff Lee? Or do they re-sign one, go after Lee and piece together the final spot? This is another post for another time, but clearly pitching is a big concern heading into next year.
4 Comments
Lilly will be looking to cash in being 35 yrs old, he is the fourth best pitcher on the free agent market, and will match the 3yr/30mil that Wolf got. Offering him arb and he will be on a one year 15 mil deal and would be a great #3 pitcher. But he will certainly turn down arb, then we would get a first rounder and a supplemental pick. Take the picks and resign Kuroda to a one year deal.
Dont offer Kuroda arb, he is a type B pitcher and although he is the 8 or 9th best pitcher on the market my guess is he would accept arb and cost 15mil…too much for him in my opinion and we cant afford both Kuroda and Lilly and a solid left fielder.
I agree with you completly on Padilla offer him arb, but make Stan Conte’s job on the line for this decision…if he says he will be healthy enough to pitch, then offer him arb. If he remains healthy and a viable #4 or solid #5 then offer Conte an extention. If he gets injured and repeats this year…FIRE HIM. I still hold him responsible for Jason Schmidt…was great to have the solid inside information.
Overall offering Lilly and Padilla arb would cost us 6-7mil for Padilla’s contract and we would get two first rounders and a supplemental pick. That would be a great way to restock the lower levels with solid prospects and give us some trade flexibility with some of the ones closer to being ready (Withrow/Martin)
If the Dodgers do anything in the off-season it should be to re-sign Lilly for that 3-year cash cow and find an affordable way to re-sign Kuroda for another 1-2 years.
That sounds like a financial overbite, but these pitchers have pitched with health and consistency for being in their 30′s even before free-agency stats ensue. Wolf? No. Garland? No. Padilla?…Padilla when on is a diamond, but he is not consistent and when he isn’t due to health or otherwise…Man, he gets beat up. I honestly would just let him walk. The Dodgers don’t need question marks over any pitching health right now. (e.g. Yeah, Schmidt)
Montesterios is a bullpen pitcher (if at all). Period.
Kenley Jansen is a stud. If the Dodgers are wise, they’ll use him as a middle innings eater when starting pitching fails. I bet there’s plenty off clubhouse talk about him starting, but they don’t want him to end up Strasburg.
With Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuo, Broxton, and (cough) Farnsworth they’d look pretty mean in September next year.
I agree this season is lost so why not trade him and get some prospects. There is no point in keeping him, most likely he will resign next year. If they keep him and offer him arb and he accepts then they get no picks so might as well grab the extra prospects and get him back next year.
With all due respect, I’d like to ask if what game did this players belong? Sorry for barging in. I am just confused. Is this like a private blog I have gone into? or what?