Baseball America, the number one source for scouting information and prospects has released their 2011 top 10 prospects list for the Dodgers.
For the second year in a row the number one prospect has been 22-year-old shortstop Dee Gordon, nicknamed “the Flash.” Two months ago I did a top 25 prospects for the Dodgers (2011DodgerProspects.doc) and named Zach Lee as our top youngster. After Gordon’s winter league play in Puerto Rico I switched back to Gordon. “The Flash” could be a Jimmy Rollins type player, I used to think he would be a poor man’s Rollins but now think he is of the same caliber. Gordon will be playing in Albuquerque to start the season, unless Rafael Furcal gets hurt during spring training. Furcal is in the last year of his deal, and would need 600 plate appearances to guarantee his 2012 contract. At first I thought there was no chance of this happening, however he has accomplished that feat 3/5 years as a Dodger. It’s a win-win scenario for the team, if Furcal is healthy and plays all year, then we have an accomplished all-star shortstop manning the position this year and next. If Furcal gets hurt then we can start the clock on “the Flash” and see what he is made of and we save 12 million next year by cutting Furcal loose.
BA’s top 10 FDB top 10
1. Gordon 1. Gordon
2. Lee 2. Lee
3. De La Rosa 3. De La Rosa
4. Withrow 4. Sands
5. Webster 5. Webster
6. Sands 6. Withrow
7. Elbert 7. Robinson
8. Jansen 8. Miller
9. Martin 9. Gould
10. Robinson 10. Martin
The two prospects that we left off our list that Baseball America had were Scott Elbert and Kenley Jansen. Jansen was moved off of our list and put in as a lock for the 2011 MLB bullpen. We saw enough of him last year to not consider him a prospect anymore. Elbert has been someone we have routinely routed for, hoping he can live up to his potential. BA once had him as a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. Matt and I hope that Elbert can pull through, but honestly have given up on him and left him off the list. The two prospects we replaced Elbert and Jansen with are Aaron Miller and Garrett Gould, two of our top three picks in 2009. Miller, a lefty, was dominating until promoted to double A, Garrett Gould will come along slowly but has #2or3 starter potential.
Six of the top 10 are potentially major league ready, Gordon and Robinson are going to Triple A for their final tune up, De La Rosa could be in the bullpen in 2011 and become a 4th or 5th starter by 2012. Enter Sandman, who will wait and see with the rest of us what Lames Joney does. If Loney bounces back then Sandman will compete with TRob in left for 2012, if Loney fizzles then the Sandman might be in LA next year manning first. Jansen and Elbert round out the final two who are competing for roster spots during spring training, Jansen already earned his spot IMO, and Elbert has the inside track to be the lefty out of the pen.
Of the rest, Webster is my favorite profiling as a #2 or 3 starter ready by mid 2012. Zach Lee has the highest upside profiling as a top of the rotation starter, could be here by 2013. Withrow and Martin, once the pride and joy of the system (and deemed untouchable by illogical Dodger Fans) need to rebound this year or risk going from top 100 MLB prospects to losing all their trade value.
4 Comments
I like the FDB order better. Jansen isn’t really a prospect anymore than Bellasario is at this point in time.
I’m also skeptical about Martin and Elbert while I think Robinson could very well play this year.
FDB’s top 4 are sounds as well.
The top three should make the top 100 list, pretty easily, while Sands and Webster are long shots. Sands and Webster continue their trends and we will see them as top MLB prospects. Are is set to produce some decent players
2011-Dejesus, Gordon, Robinson, De La Rosa, Mitchell
2012-Sands, Withrow, Miller, Webster, Russell
2013-Lee, Gould, Garcia, Martin, Lemmerman, Smith, Landry
2014-rests in the capable Logan White’s hands
It’s nice there is something to watch for. The Dodgers farm system has been pretty dry the past few years. We’d be using Santana, but nobody saw Martin phase out the way he did.
Some argue that we could’ve paid a few more dollars and just landed Blake. I wasn’t in the room. Press says a lot of things. Blake did have is upside though. I’ll never forget that 9th inning walk against Ryan Franklin in the NLDS. Pure steel.
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