Feeling Dodger Blue: A Dodgers Blog

Bullpen – What was a real question mark going into the 2011 season ended up a strength. In 2012 I think this part of the team will be the best and has the potential to be the envy of the league. There are still questions that need to be answered, starting with who is the closer? Javy Guerra filled in that role at mid-season and did a good job for a rookie. But he isn’t the most talented reliever on the team. That honor goes to Kenley Jansen who dominated hitters in record fashion. Also emerging was Scott Elbert who was once a top 10 prospect in all of baseball as a starting pitcher and had a disappearing incident to end the 2010 season. He rebounded last year and will fill the void left by Hong Chih Kuo’s departure to Seattle as the left hander out of the pen. Most of the spots on the team are spoken for and I assume that the team is going with a seven man bullpen. Here is how I would like to see it play out.

Closer: Kenley Jansen – This kid is a stud, used to be a catcher with an arm but no bat and in less than two years is a shinning star in the Major Leagues. His 16.1 K/9 set a record last year and he did most of his best work after June 18th after a stint on the DL. Flat out nasty and when big league hitters are comparing your fastball to Mariano Rivera you know you have something special. He spent 2011 as the set up man but I would rather him be our closer shortening games to eight innings with the ninth being potentially another “Game Over” experience.

Setup Man: Javy Guerra – Brought up during the season to fill a hole in the bullpen he did quite well closing games. I don’t have him returning to the closer’s role because he made it a little interesting at times walking too many batters. What I can give him credit for is that even with the bases loaded he hung in there and got out of some tight situations. His K/9 and BB/9 needs to improve to be a legit setup guy and that is the reason some prefer that he continues to close and Jansen remains the set up guy.

6th-7th inn: This is where our bullpen is at it’s strongest. We have three veteran guys that could pitch here and in the sixth inning. Matt Guerrier was signed last year to fill this hole and had a down year by his standards with and ERA almost a full run higher than in 2010. It generally takes a year to get used to a league change, so I expect him to have a better season. Mike McDougal returns again after a stellar 2011 season and we will get to see the hard fastball throughout the season. Another hard thrower added to the mix is the big Todd Coffey. He just recently signed and could fill in the setup man role if needed.

Left Hander: Scott Elbert – After a rough start to his career he found his niche. Guys who throw hard from the left side will always have a place in baseball, just look at Arthur Rhodes. Scott has a Kuo-like fastball with other pitches to add to the mix like his devestating slider. This kid could fill this hole for several years and its great to finally see him put everything together.

Final Spot: Josh Lindblom – this kid has done nothing to deserve to start the year in the minor leagues…but that is probably where he is going to end up. Hard fastball and slider and because he was a one time starter could fill the long reliever position needed. His only downside is he has minor league options and the team will more likely use his clone Blake Hawksworth if he is healthy. Ramon Troncoso, Jamey Wright and even a clean and sober Ronaldo Belisario (remember this guy?) could claim this spot.

Starting Rotation – Led by Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw this staff should be one of the up and coming rotations in baseball…or at least a fairly solid one. Instead it will take a step back or two from where it was last year. Crazy with a 23 year old ace leading the rotation. The loss of the samurai hurts us big time and the confusing part to me is that for the cost of Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano we could have afforded Hiroki Kuroda and had one of the young farm guys pitching in the fifth slot. But alas that is what you get with a cheapskate owner on the way out. As it stands this is how the rotation is going to play out for this year and next since Harang and Capuano are signed to two year deals.

1. Clayton Kershaw – Ace, Cy Young winner and a guy who is going to give a chance to win 32 starts a season. Only thing left to say is SIGN HIM LONG TERM!!!

2. Chad Billingsly – At one point there was no doubt that Kershaw and Bills were going to lead this rotation the only question was who was the #1 guy. Since 2009 Chad has tailed off and although he has the stuff to be a solid #2 pitcher he doesn’t show it on the mound. He is more suited for the #3 spot but is here because there is nobody else. I hope that he can still rebound and has the youth and finacial security to do so. We know he is going to get 10+ wins but if he has confidence a 15 W, 3.50 ERA and 180 K season is not that far fetched.

3. Ted Lilly – I like the guy and he has been exactly what we have hoped for since acquiring him at the trade deadline in 2010. His reputation is he starts slow and finishes strong just like last year. However he is getting older and at 36 years old will start regressing or get hurt. Pitching in the third spot of the rotation doesn’t suit him at this point in his career and will hurt his numbers. If he repeats his 12 W, 3.97 ERA and 168 I would be more than happy but 9 W, 4.40 ERA and 130 Ks seems more likely to me, if he pitches the entire season.

4. Aaron Harang – I wish we had this guy three or four years ago. I remember hoping that when the Dodgers were in the NLCS championships we had traded for him. He dominated a couple years in Cincinnati at a hitter’s ballpark and would have been a monster at Chavez Ravine. He put up great numbers at Petco last year and I don’t mind him in the back of the rotation. Signing him for two years seemed like a stretch but McCourt needs two year contracts so he can pay him 1 dollar this year and the remaining 11 million will be paid by the new owner.

5. Chris Capuano – This one really confused me, he put together his first healthy season in four years and gets a two year contract…only in LA LA land with McCourt at the helm. A two year deal for him too??? Seriously?? But here he is and I really have no clue what to expect from him. His stats weren’t that bad and his K/9 is pretty darn good. He is possibly a younger version of Ted Lilly. I don’t think he is going to be healthy for the two years here and don’t expect much from him. I’m more excited to see the guys who will sub in for him while on the DL. Guys like Eovaldi, De La Rosa, Webster and Withrow are pitchers I hope to see here real soon.

Truth is I couldn’t watch the Dodgers last season after May. I missed the great turnaround and was actually disappointed by it. Had we finished the season poorly we would have been in a better draft position. The story of the offseason has been about McCourt and I’m done with that guy, if somebody capped his ass I would celebrate by spending my entire paycheck on a bottle of wine I can’t afford. It disgusts me that he will potentially make 100′s of millions of dollars and still might keep the parking lots and surrounding properties. Which makes me wonder what idiot will pay three to four times as much as McCourt did for the team and get less in return? But for now I am going to try and focus on the team and its farm system to get ready for the 2012 season. If your interested in following the bidding battle then go no further than the LA Times website with their coverage and Steve Dilbeck’s blog. The facts are there are plenty of bidders, they all have financial backer’s and it’s getting ridiculous. If your out you can still get back in just offer more money and the highest bidder will win regardless of where there from and if they are good for the team.

We waited until he caught on fire…so now that he is scorching red hot what do you think? There are some expectations that I have for someone who plays firstbase. They are generally the worst fielders on the team, they have no arm, they couldn’t beat out an infield single squibbed to their grandmother, they can’t hit for a high average topping out around .280, and they can park a three run homer occasionally when the team needs it. James Loney is exceptional at almost everything but power. In fact he should have been a left fielder, he has a cannon for an arm that initially made people think he would end up being a pitcher. But the powers that be thought that smooth swing of his would translate into power.


James Loney does have a smooth swing, a swing that made me write a post talking about how I could accept a first baseman that doesn’t have power if he hit like Mark Grace. And I could, except the Loney and Grace comparisons stop after you bring up power shortage. Grace maxed out at 17 HRs at age 34, Loney hit 15 at age 23, but Grace had a knack for getting on base. Maybe its because I am halfway through “Moneyball” but as hot as Loney is hitting his OBP still doesn’t cut it. To justify a lack of power at first my ideal firstbaseman would need to have a Mark Grace OBP which had a career average of .383 through 16 seasons. Loney’s career average through six seasons is .344. This season Loney has a .320 OBP and is on pace for a career low in walks. If his power was up and his walks down, then okay, anit-Moneyball but I’m still fine with it.


Its Loney’s power that ranks him as one of the weakest offensive firstbaseman in the major leagues. His .358 slugging tops only Lyle Overbay, Daric Barton and the struggling Derek Lee. And he only tops Barton in the homerun catagory. Less doubles, less homeruns, less walks, lower average??? Why is he still the firstbaseman of the bankrupt Dodgers? He is pretty expensive for a weak ass firstbaseman!!! Mike Morse is having a hell of a year for a cool million and he has a .299/.349/.583 slash line. To keep Loney around I would like to see a slugging percentage of around .500, but that would put him in the same catagory as Pujols/Votto/Howard/Helton. Right now I would take Mitch Moreland’s .273/.339/.458 to go along with his 11 dongs. If Loney had those numbers his RBI totals would be far higher than his current 29. But thats what you get when you hit .091 with the bases loaded!


I think that some are waiting for Loney’s value to go up. After all Dodger management and most Dodger fans are terrible at deciding when to deal our players when their value is highest. Martin/Broxton/Kuo could have fetched the kings ransom without hurting the overall club. Martin would have been replaced by a cheaper and better Carlos Santana and fetched more than Casey Blake (Maybe Bucholtz and Ellsbury)! Broxton could have been replaced and we should have cashed in on Kuo before he went Looney Tunes. To get back on point…LONEY HAS NO VALUE!!! Not since the end of 2009 has he had any, we should have traded him to Washington for Morse! It is too late to get value for James. But its not too late to get things moving forward.


Jerry Sands had a lower OBP and Slugging, BUT he had more RBI’s and HRs in less ABs than Loney and Sands has displayed power in the minors (Loney never did). Sands could play first and hot shot outfielder Trayvon Robinson could/SHOULD be in left. At worst if you platoon Loney and Sands against RH/LF you would get better production. But something has to be done…Loney needs to go and take his saxaphone with him.

The previous top 10 had Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands and Rubby De La Rosa in the top 5 along Zach Lee and Allen Webster. I made the current 10 with the assumption that Gordon, Sands and DLR all get enough time to surpass rookie status and eliminating them as prospects. With those three the Dodgers were ranked 11th by Baseball America, however with them removed and Aaron Miller and Ethan Martin having bad years this team will plummet to the bottom fourth in baseball. Not helping matters is a weak 2011 budget strapped draft and yet another year where we are non-existent in the international free agent market. There could be hope if we aquire prospects for Hiroki Kuroda, Jamie Carroll, Aaron Miles and Mike McDougal at the trade deadline. Furcal would have to be out of this world for teams to even take him as a salary dump.

1.  Zach Lee (RHP):  A-
Throws 91-92 consistently, can gas it up to 95 with plus movement, a plus breaking ball/slider, and potential plus changeup that he is still working on. Projects as a #1 starter, untouchable is now truly defined for the Dodgers. Started off the first two months red hot, but has been roughed up since his return from arm soreness.  His April ERA was a tad above 1.00, and his walks to strikeouts is still looking good

2.  Allen Webster (RHP):  A-
My personal favorite, Webster is barely 21 and was just an 18th round pick, but he has really good stuff. Throws 90-91 consistently but heats it up to 94 with life and pretty good sink and is working on completing his three pitch repertoire. His changeup was one of the best in the league to complement his diving fastball, and with some consistency on locating his curveball he could be a solid #2 or #3 guy. The kid only gets stronger and produces better numbers; he made short work of high A ball and is doing well in Chattanooga.

3.  Trayvon Robinson (OF): B+
Robinson was a 10th round pick, and when Matt saw him he wasn’t impressed. His style of play reminds me of Curtis Granderson , and he is showing the power expected from the PCL, but I am wondering where his stolen bases went. He could be the left fielder and two-hole hitter in LA for several years if he can continue to hit. Made the AAA allstar squad and is a lock for the September callups, maybe even August if we go into sell mode.

4.  Chris Withrow (RHP):  B+
The Dodgers first round pick in 2008 has great stuff, but is inconsistent with an ERA over five at Double-A. He throws his fastball 92-95mph and heats it up to the upper 90’s. Withrow continues to struggle to put everything together, he shows how dominant he can be one day then crumbles the other. At the rate Withrow is developing it could be another 2 full years before we see him in Los Angeles. His last five starts have been encouraging and the hope is he gets it all together by the end of the year.

5. Garrett Gould (RHP):  B+
Garrett was taken with the second pick after Miller in 2009 and was a high school kid with a high ceiling. He hovers in the low 90’s but at 20 years old can gas it up to the 94-95s. There is some serious potential with this kid and the team seems to be taking it slow with him. He has a curveball that could be his best pitch and was ranked as one of the best of the 2009 high school prospects. Gould is probably having the best statistical season of any Dodger prospect, his number in Great Lakes are ridiculous and he could be moved to High A ball soon.

6.  Aaron Miller (LHP): B
He could evolve into a solid #3 starter, but more probably a back of the rotation lefty. My ideal 4-5 guys need to be a consistent healthy inning eaters and he could be a solid one at that. He can consistently throw in the 89-92mph range and can touch it up a slight notch around 94-95. He is one of the older players in High A and will need to handle the AA transition. Since he hasn’t had as many setbacks as Martin I ranked him higher, except for his current DL stint!

7.  Ethan Martin (RHP): B
Really not coming along very well, he was once one of the gems of our farm system and declared un-tradable. Now looks more like a hard throwing bullpen guy. Like Withrow, his plus pitch is his fastball that he throws anywhere from 90-94 and as high as 98, but his velocity is inconsistent, like his control. He is still 22 years old but will most likely need to repeat high A, or risk looking overmatched at AA. Right now he is overmatched at high A ball.

8. Shawn Tolleson (RHP): B
So far this year’s biggest surprise. He was drafted in the 30th round but has an unblemished professional record thus far. He dominated low A ball and got an early promotion to Rancho and did just fine there. Now in less than a year he is in Double A ball. Shawn was nowhere on the scene during the offseason so he didn’t even make the top 25, he debuts here at #8 and could be in the big leagues by next year. He has a strong mid 90’s fastball with a slider.

9.  Nate Evoldi (RHP): B-
A high school draft three years ago, he has a live arm that could be better than Withrow and Martin’s but the future for Evoldi could be in the bullpen. His fastball is in the mid 90’s and so far he is one of the better pitchers at Chattanooga. He held a lot of promise at one point and could be finally putting everything together. Nate jumped from #25 to top 10 because of how he is doing and how bad the depth is.

10.  Jake Lemmerman (SS/2B): B-
A SS drafted in the fifth round in 2011, was considered the third best SS out of college, Tore up the rookie year making a strong first impression Jake hit 12HRs with 47RBIs to go along with his strong line of .363/.434/.610 for an amazing OPS (On Base Plus Slugging) of 1.044. The 21 year old was the rookie league MVP. So far in A ball he is continuing to hit and be a team leader. “Late Night” Lemmerman is someone to keep an eye on.

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Angel Songco, Kyle Russell, James Baldwin, Scott Van Slyke are guys looking to crack the top 10 and bump Miller and Martin off the list…any others?